Data S

Supplementary data for the following scientific article:

Vieilledent G., C. Vancutsem, C. Bourgoin, P. Ploton, P. Verley, and F. Achard. 2023. Spatial scenario of tropical deforestation and carbon emissions for the 21^st century. bioRxiv. doi: 10.1101/2022.03.22.485306. Supplementary Information

Data S1: Uncertainty around projected forest cover

Download the raw data:

Text CSV: forest_cover_change_uncertainty.csv
ODF Spreadsheet: forest_cover_change_uncertainty.ods
Excel 2007–365: forest_cover_change_uncertainty.xlsx

Data S1: Uncertainty around projected forest cover. Past and projected forest cover change by study area are given in thousand hectares (Kha). The mean annual deforested area \(d\) for the ten-year period 2010–2020 is given in hectare per year (ha/yr). The corresponding mean annual deforestation rate \(p\) is also provided in percent per year (%/yr), with one decimal precision, to be able to compare the intensity of deforestation between study areas. Projections were made using the forest cover in 2020 (“fc2000”) and either (i) the mean annual deforested area \(d\) for the ten-year period 2010–2020, (ii) the lower bound \(d'\) of the confidence interval for the annual deforested area, or (iii) the upper bound \(d''\) of the confidence interval for the annual deforested area. We considered a business-as-usual scenario of deforestation (deforestation constant through time) for the projections. Column “loss21” indicates the projected percentage of forest cover loss during the 21^st century (2100 vs. 2000). Column “yrdis” indicates the estimated year at which all the forest of the study area will have disappeared.

Data S2: Uncertainty around projected carbon emissions

Download the raw data:

Text CSV: carbon_emissions_uncertainty.csv
ODF Spreadsheet: carbon_emissions_uncertainty.ods
Excel 2007–365: carbon_emissions_uncertainty.xlsx

Data S2: Uncertainty around projected carbon emissions. We combined our maps of projected forest cover change together with three different aboveground biomass maps: the WUR map at 1 km resolution by Avitabile et al. (2016), the WHRC map at 30 m resolution by Zarin et al. (2016), and the ESA CCI map at 100 m resolution by Santoro et al. (2021). We computed the cumulative carbon emissions associated with future deforestation from 2020 for each study area (C in Gg=10⁹ g). We present here the results obtained with the ESA CCI biomass map. Maps of projected forest cover change were derived using either (i) the mean annual deforested area \(d\) for the ten-year period 2010–2020, (ii) the lower bound \(d'\) of the confidence interval for the annual deforested area, or (iii) the upper bound \(d''\) of the confidence interval for the annual deforested area. Column “C2020” indicates the carbon emissions associated with past deforestation during the period 2010–2020 for comparison.

References

Avitabile, V., Herold, M., Heuvelink, G.B.M., Lewis, S.L., Phillips, O.L., Asner, G.P., Armston, J., Ashton, P.S., Banin, L., Bayol, N., Berry, N.J., Boeckx, P., Jong, B.H.J. de, DeVries, B., Girardin, C.A.J., Kearsley, E., Lindsell, J.A., Lopez-Gonzalez, G., Lucas, R., Malhi, Y., Morel, A., Mitchard, E.T.A., Nagy, L., Qie, L., Quinones, M.J., Ryan, C.M., Ferry, S.J.W., Sunderland, T., Laurin, G.V., Gatti, R.C., Valentini, R., Verbeeck, H., Wijaya, A. & Willcock, S. (2016) An integrated pan-tropical biomass map using multiple reference datasets. Global Change Biology, 22, 1406–1420.

Santoro, M., Cartus, O., Carvalhais, N., Rozendaal, D.M.A., Avitabile, V., Araza, A., Bruin, S. de, Herold, M., Quegan, S., Rodríguez-Veiga, P., Balzter, H., Carreiras, J., Schepaschenko, D., Korets, M., Shimada, M., Itoh, T., Moreno Martínez, Álvaro, Cavlovic, J., Gatti, R.C., Conceição Bispo, P. da, Dewnath, N., Labrière, N., Liang, J., Lindsell, J., Mitchard, E.T.A., Morel, A., Pascagaza, A.M.P., Ryan, C.M., Slik, F., Laurin, G.V., Verbeeck, H., Wijaya, A. & Willcock, S. (2021) The global forest above-ground biomass pool for 2010 estimated from high-resolution satellite observations. Earth System Science Data, 13, 3927–3950.

Zarin, D.J., Harris, N.L., Baccini, A., Aksenov, D., Hansen, M.C., Azevedo-Ramos, C., Azevedo, T., Margono, B.A., Alencar, A.C., Gabris, C., Allegretti, A., Potapov, P., Farina, M., Walker, W.S., Shevade, V.S., Loboda, T.V., Turubanova, S. & Tyukavina, A. (2016) Can carbon emissions from tropical deforestation drop by 50. Global Change Biology, 22, 1336–1347.